Sabato’s Crystal Ball Shifts 28 House Race Projections Toward Democrats
Nonpartisan election forecaster Sabato's Crystal Ball has shifted 28 United States House races in favor of Democrats, with projections now placing the party above the 218 seats needed for a House majority.
Sioux Falls, SD, October 20, 2026 —
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election forecaster, has shifted its projections in 28 U.S. House races in favor of Democrats. The updated projections place the party above the 218 seats needed to hold a majority in the chamber.
The change represents a notable shift in the forecast for control of the House. Under the projections described, Democrats would be positioned to cross the 218-seat threshold. The summary of the forecast does not provide a projected seat total, so the size of the party’s lead above that threshold is not specified.
The information provided also does not identify the 28 races, explain how each race’s rating changed, or give the previous projections. It does not include the date of the update or the forecast’s underlying assumptions. As a result, the specific contests driving the overall shift and the scale of movement in individual races cannot be determined from the available details.
The projection is a forecast, not a report of election results. The available summary does not state whether the change reflects revised assessments in particular districts or a broader adjustment. It also does not provide estimates of uncertainty or other forecasters’ projections for comparison.
For now, the stated takeaway is that Sabato’s Crystal Ball has moved 28 House race projections toward Democrats and places the party above the majority threshold. Further details about the individual contests, the magnitude of the projected advantage and the timing of the update were not provided.
Story summarized from the original created by Ford McCracken on thehill.com, see more information here.
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